Journal-based CME Course: Association of Zip Code Vaccination Rate With COVID-19 Mortality in Chicago, Illinois

Activity ID

12699

Expires

May 31, 2025

Format Type

Journal-based

CME Credit

1

Fee

30

CME Provider: JAMA Network Open

Description of CME Course

Importance  There has been large geographic inequity in vaccination coverage across Chicago, Illinois, with higher vaccination rates in zip codes with residents who predominantly have high incomes and are White.

Objective  To determine the association between inequitable zip code–level vaccination coverage and COVID-19 mortality in Chicago.

Design, Setting, and Participants  This retrospective cohort study used Chicago Department of Public Health vaccination and mortality data and Cook County Medical Examiner mortality data from March 1, 2020, through November 6, 2021, to assess the association of COVID-19 mortality with zip code–level vaccination rates. Data were analyzed from June 1, 2021, to April 13, 2022.

Exposures  Zip code–level first-dose vaccination rates before the Alpha and Delta waves of COVID-19.

Main Outcomes and Measures  The primary outcome was deaths from COVID-19 during the Alpha and Delta waves. The association of a marginal increase in zip code–level vaccination rate with weekly mortality rates was estimated with a mixed-effects Poisson regression model, and the total number of preventable deaths in the least vaccinated quartile of zip codes was estimated with a linear difference-in-difference design.

Results  The study population was 2 686 355 Chicago residents in 52 zip codes (median [IQR] age 34 [32-38] years; 1 378 658 [51%] women; 773 938 Hispanic residents [29%]; 783 916 non-Hispanic Black residents [29%]; 894 555 non-Hispanic White residents [33%]). Among residents in the least vaccinated quartile, 80% were non-Hispanic Black, compared with 8% of residents identifying as non-Hispanic Black in the most vaccinated quartile (P < .001). After controlling for age distribution and recovery from COVID-19, a 10–percentage point increase in zip code–level vaccination 6 weeks before the peak of the Alpha wave was associated with a 39% lower relative risk of death from COVID-19 (incidence rate ratio [IRR], 0.61 [95% CI, 0.52-0.72]). A 10–percentage point increase in zip code vaccination rate 6 weeks before the peak of the Delta wave was associated with a 24% lower relative risk of death (IRR, 0.76 [95% CI, 0.66-0.87]). The difference-in-difference estimate was that 119 Alpha wave deaths (72% [95% CI, 63%-81%]) and 108 Delta wave deaths (75% [95% CI, 66%-84%]) might have been prevented in the least vaccinated quartile of zip codes if it had had the vaccination coverage of the most vaccinated quartile.

Conclusions and Relevance  These findings suggest that low zip code–level vaccination rates in Chicago were associated with more deaths during the Alpha and Delta waves of COVID-19 and that inequitable vaccination coverage exacerbated existing racial and ethnic disparities in COVID-19 deaths.

Disclaimers

1. This activity is accredited by the American Medical Association.
2. This activity is free to AMA members.

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